Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for Long-Term Ecological Research

Scenario studies have emerged as a powerful approach for synthesizing diverse forms of research and for articulating and evaluating alternative
socioecological futures. Unlike predictive modeling, scenarios do not attempt to forecast the precise or probable state of any variable at a given
point in the future. Instead, comparisons among a set of contrasting scenarios are used to understand the systemic relationships and dynamics
of complex socioecological systems and to define a range of possibilities and uncertainties in quantitative and qualitative terms. We describe five
examples of scenario studies affiliated with the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and evaluate them in terms of their ability
to advance the LTER Network’s capacity for conducting science, promoting social and ecological science synthesis, and increasing the saliency of
research through sustained outreach activities. We conclude with an argument that scenario studies should be advanced programmatically within
large socioecological research programs to encourage prescient thinking in an era of unprecedented global change.

Keywords: socioecological systems, science synthesis, participatory engagement, futures